Kuki PVC Ibiciro Byibikoresho Byibuze muri 2026? Isesengura rifatika kubakinnyi binganda

Kuki PVC Ibiciro Byibikoresho Byibuze muri 2026? Isesengura rifatika kubakinnyi binganda

Niba uri muri PVC - inganda zijyanye - waba uri uruganda, umuyobozi ushinzwe amasoko, cyangwa nyir'ubucuruzi nkatwe muri Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd . - birashoboka ko wigeze wumva vuba aha. Kuva muri Werurwe 2026, ibiciro by'ibikoresho fatizo bya PVC byazamutse ku gipimo kitigeze kibaho, kandi ntabwo ari ihindagurika ry’isoko gusa. Uyu munsi, nzagabanya impamvu nyazo zitera iri zamuka ry’ibiciro, hamwe namakuru ahamye hamwe ninganda zinganda, kugirango ngufashe kumva ibibera nuburyo wasubiza.

Ubwa mbere, reka duhite tumenya ukuri: Ethylene - ishingiye kuri PVC yasimbutse hejuru ya 26%, na calcium karbide - ishingiye kuri PVC hafi 24% mubyumweru bike gusa. Kuri Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd., yibanda ku bikoresho byo guswera hamwe nigitambaro cyo kwamamaza (byombi biterwa cyane na PVC), ibi bivuze ibiciro byumusaruro mwinshi hamwe nicyemezo gikomeye cyo gutanga amasoko. Ariko kugirango tuyobore iyi serwakira, dukeneye kubanza kumenyakubera ikibiraba.

1. Umushoferi Wibanze: Umuvuduko wigiciro Kuva Kuruhande

Umusaruro wa PVC mu Bushinwa wiganjemo uburyo bwa calcium karbide (hejuru ya 80% yubushobozi bwose), hamwe na Ethylene igizwe nibindi. Inzira zombi zihura nigiciro kinini, kandi dore ibisobanuro:

Kuri karisiyumu ya calcium - ishingiye kuri PVC: Igiciro cya kariside ya calcium, ibikoresho byingenzi, bikomeza kuzamuka. Ku ya 16 Werurwe, igipimo ngenderwaho cya kariside ya calcium cyageze kuri toni 2,486 / toni, ndetse n'uturere tumwe na tumwe twageze kuri toni 2,910. Ibintu bibiri by'ingenzi ni amakosa: izamuka ry’ibiciro by’amakara y’umuriro (bizamura ibiciro by’ingufu ku musaruro wa kariside ya calcium) hamwe n’ubugenzuzi bukomeye bw’ibidukikije n’umutekano mu turere twinshi dukora nka Imbere muri Mongoliya na Shaanxi, byagabanije ubushobozi bw’umusaruro no kongera ibicuruzwa.

Kuri Ethylene - ishingiye kuri PVC: Ikibazo kiva ku isoko mpuzamahanga rya peteroli. Ku ya 28 Gashyantare, Amerika na Isiraheli bagabye ibitero bya gisirikare kuri Irani, Irani na yo isubiza mu guhagarika Inzira ya Hormuz - inzira ikomeye itwara 20% by'ubucuruzi bwa peteroli ku isi. Brent ibiciro bya peteroli bigeze kuzamuka hejuru ya $ 118 / barrale, kandi ibi byazamuye ibiciro bya Ethylene. Mu burasirazuba bw'Ubushinwa, ibiciro bya Ethylene byazamutse hejuru ya 45% mu byumweru bibiri gusa, biva kuri 6.000 Yuan / toni bigera kuri 8.800-10,000. Kugeza ku ya 16 Werurwe, PVC ejo hazaza nayo iracuruza cyane kuri 5.831 yuan / toni, hiyongereyeho 4.97% kumunsi umwe, ibyo bikaba bigaragaza ubwoba bwisoko ryizamuka ryibiciro.

2. Amasoko akomeye: "Amplifier" yo Kuzamura Ibiciro

Umuvuduko wibiciro nuwashoferi nyamukuru, ariko gutanga cyane byatumye ibintu birushaho kuba bibi. Reka turebe amakuru:

Imbere mu gihugu, igipimo cy’inganda cya PVC cyaragabanutse kugera kuri 78.49% muri Werurwe kubera gufata neza amasoko n’inganda zikomeye. Ikirenze ibyo, nta bushobozi bushya bwongerwaho muri 2026, kandi ubushobozi bwo kongera umusaruro buragenda buvaho, bityo umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bwa buri mwaka uri munsi ya 1%. Mu mahanga, ibintu birakomeye: toni zisaga miliyoni 2 z'ubushobozi bwa PVC zahagaritswe mu Burayi, mu Buyapani, no muri Amerika kubera ingufu nyinshi ndetse n’ingutu z’ibidukikije, ibyo bikaba byarushijeho kongera icyifuzo cyo kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga PVC byoherezwa mu Bushinwa.

3. Gusaba Byoroheje Gusubirana: "Inkunga" Inyuma Yurugendo

Bitandukanye n'izamuka ryibiciro byabanjirije ibiciro gusa, iki gihe hariho no gukira byoroheje mubisabwa bitanga inkunga. Bitewe na politiki y’iterambere ry’Ubushinwa ihamye, politiki "yo gutanga imiturire yizewe" hamwe n’imishinga yihuse y’ibikorwa remezo byatumye hakenerwa imiyoboro ya PVC n’umwirondoro. Mu mpera za Gashyantare, igipimo cy’imikorere y’imiyoboro ya PVC n’ibigo by’umwirondoro cyazamutse kigera kuri 62%, amanota 11 - yiyongereyeho amanota kuva mu mpera z’igihembwe cya kane 2025.

Ibisabwa mu mahanga nabyo biriyongera. Ubuhinde buherutse guhagarika icyemezo cya BIS no kurwanya - kujugunya imisoro kuri PVC y’Ubushinwa, kandi n’ubushobozi bw’amahanga bwahagaritswe, PVC y’Ubushinwa imaze kuba igiciro - irushanwa. Biteganijwe ko uyu mwaka ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga PVC by’Ubushinwa biziyongera 20% muri uyu mwaka, bifasha mu kwinjiza ibicuruzwa bituruka mu gihugu ndetse n’ibiciro by’ingoboka. Ku masosiyete nkatwe muri Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd., iri terambere ryoherezwa mu mahanga naryo rizana amahirwe mashya hagati yigitutu cyibiciro.

4. Ibi bivuze iki kuri twe? (Inama zifatika)

Nkumuntu ukora mu nganda - akavuga ahereye ku bunararibonye bwa Hubei Jinlong - kugendana n'izamuka ry'ibiciro bisaba isesengura rituje, ntabwo ari ubwoba. Abasesenguzi bavuga ko ibiciro bizaza biterwa ahanini n'ibintu bibiri: amakimbirane ya geopolitike mu burasirazuba bwo hagati no kuzamuka kw'ibiciro bya peteroli. Niba amakimbirane agabanutse kandi ibiciro bya peteroli bikagabanuka, ibiciro byibikoresho bya PVC birashobora gukosora; ariko niba amakimbirane akomeje cyangwa kugenzura ibidukikije bikabije, ibiciro bizakomeza kuba hejuru.

Ku bigo nka Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd., hano hari ibitekerezo bike bifatika: Icya mbere, gukurikiranira hafi impinduka z’isoko, cyane cyane ibiciro bya peteroli na calcium ya karbide, kugirango wirinde gutanga amasoko ahumye. Icya kabiri, hindura ingamba zo gutanga amasoko - urugero, gufunga amasezerano maremare - yo gutanga isoko kugirango uhagarike ibiciro, nkuko bimwe mubigo bikomeye byakoze kugirango bifunge ibiciro byibanze mu gice cya mbere cya 2026. Icya gatatu, hindura gahunda yumusaruro uko bikwiye, wibande ku bicuruzwa bihanitse - agaciro, kandi bigabanye ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’ibiciro fatizo.

Muri make, uku kuzamura ibiciro bya PVC ntabwo ari igihe gito - ijambo "spekulive bubble" - ni ihuriro ry’amakimbirane ya politiki, igitutu cy’ibiciro, itangwa ryinshi, hamwe no gukira byoroheje. Kuri twese mu nganda, gusobanukirwa aba bashoferi nintambwe yambere yo kubaho ndetse no gutera imbere muri iri soko rihindagurika. Twebwe muri Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd. natwe turahindura ingamba zacu kugirango duhuze n’imihindagurikire y’isoko, kandi tuzakomeza kwibanda ku gutanga ibicuruzwa byiza - byiza mu gihe dukemura ibibazo by’ibiciro neza.